Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 11.992599 14.004526 16.202625 18.776118 21.699876 24.911520 28.699450
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 8.652666 11.334482 14.558254 18.689572 23.810820 29.915899 37.706134
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 6.283336 9.122327 12.835051 17.977853 24.837598 33.583657 45.473977
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 4.744927 7.558014 11.523040 17.400132 25.744805 36.999725 53.120223
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 3.850843 6.660286 10.889063 17.533420 27.479665 41.538002 62.555341
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 3.096679 5.792778 10.109782 17.268947 28.514904 45.093955 70.841613
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 2.738061 5.479944 10.107818 18.138470 31.267286 51.301083 83.389209
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 2.357805 5.043978 9.817130 18.469631 33.162962 56.324205 94.506077
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 2.007396 4.586066 9.404236 18.513987 34.554405 60.626033 104.780839
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.719842 4.187815 9.027101 18.549775 35.897066 64.907987 115.279104
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.632316 4.183781 9.382885 19.941028 39.692081 73.460435 133.226059
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 1.499672 4.053725 9.468059 20.821942 42.639045 80.775387 149.574573
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 1.360211 3.889522 9.478495 21.595888 45.532235 88.331675 167.058587
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 1.158611 3.533173 9.032568 21.409561 46.620130 92.837376 179.680343
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.944293 3.090451 8.321156 20.575305 46.362966 94.899295 188.157142
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.777966 2.730338 7.732156 19.913045 46.358320 97.390792 197.527681
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.681840 2.543540 7.523162 20.058363 48.001074 103.067160 213.034413
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.578669 2.305988 7.144389 19.759118 48.670065 106.905892 225.343468
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.543667 2.276369 7.298955 20.736210 52.161979 116.477138 249.012097
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.488644 2.164045 7.211156 21.108140 54.345778 123.569789 268.295488
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.429282 2.018633 7.005648 21.157883 55.805328 129.284825 285.211577
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.377375 1.884276 6.807321 21.198059 57.239788 135.029699 302.490869
2025-04-20 00:00:00+00:00 0.373231 1.935705 7.171252 22.760544 62.357863 148.751763 336.383185